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How to foresee the stainless steel market after the typhoon

20 2018.09

Recently, the “Hawthorn”, which has been called “the strongest typhoon” by netizens for decades, has brought a lot of losses to the residents of Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi. It also has an impact on the stainless steel industry. During the typhoon, Yangjiang The regional nickel-iron plant and stainless steel plant were all discontinued. The nickel and nickel sulfate of a nickel smelter in Guangxi were suspended. The production stoppage period was determined by the subsequent impact of the typhoon. The estimated total amount of nickel metal was about 50 tons. In addition, the entire company of a steel mill in Guangxi is on duty to formulate relevant plans for production reduction or production suspension to avoid loss of company property.


Then, after the typhoon, what is the specific situation of the stainless steel market?


01. Short-term demand


Views: After the typhoon resumed work, the mainstream transaction price of 304 stainless steel market remained stable: Foshan hot rolling mainstream transaction price unchanged, Wuxi hot rolling mainstream transaction price fell 50 yuan / ton; Foshan cold rolling mainstream transaction price unchanged, Wuxi cold rolling The mainstream transaction price rose by 50 yuan / ton. In recent days, the profit of 300 series stainless steel has dropped slightly, and the overall profit level is still acceptable.


At present, the supply of stainless steel is less, and the typhoon "Mangosteen" has caused the suspension of production of most stainless steel plants in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions. In particular, the nickel-iron stainless steel plant in Yangjiang has been completely shut down. The estimated impact time is 2-3 days. After the typhoon, the production will gradually resume. Shorter impact on production is limited, but may affect the delay in delivery due to water transport.


Raw material end: nickel pig iron - nickel ore price stability, nickel-iron price fell slightly, typhoon has not yet had a significant impact on the Philippine nickel mine. With the resumption of production capacity due to environmental protection and the increase in the import of ferronickel from Indonesia's DeLong, the domestic supply of ferronickel has gradually picked up. It is understood that Xinhai's first batch of new ferronickel capacity will be put into operation in October, and the supply of high-nickel iron may gradually become looser in the later period. However, domestic environmental protection will not be relaxed, and the supply of ferronickel may be affected by environmental protection for a long time. At present, the profit of the RKEF factory is still relatively rich. Among the stainless steel related products, its profit is second only to the carbon steel.


Ferrochrome - Due to the continuous high new inventory of domestic chrome ore ports, the supply of chrome ore is abundant, the price of chrome ore continues to decrease; after the withdrawal of the Inner Mongolia Environmental Protection Group, the supply of ferrochrome is restored, the price of ferrochrome continues to fall, and the current supply of ferrochrome is oversupply. Recently, steel mills have increased demand for ferrochrome purchases, but demand increases or difficulties in supply increases, and ferrochrome prices may still be difficult to pick up.


Inventory: According to the statistics of the stainless steel website, the total inventory of stainless steel continued to decline this week. The inventory of the 200 series increased slightly, and the inventory of the 300 series and the 400 series declined. Among them, the 300 series cold rolled inventory decreased significantly. The current 300 series inventory is at the historical average level, of which Foshan's inventory is at a historical low level, Wuxi's inventory is at an historically high level, and in recent years, 300 series stainless steel stocks tend to decline in September. In the first ten days of September, Wuxi and Foshan 300 series stainless steel stocks continued to decline slightly, with hot rolling rebounding slightly and cold rolling continuing to decline. Overall, the recent 300 series stainless steel social inventory continued to decline, or began to decline in previous years, the middle and lower reaches are still in low inventory, if the demand can gradually warm up, then the late stage may enter the passive destocking stage.


02. View


Short-term 300 series stainless steel supply is less, and demand for nickel is stabilized after the price stabilizes. It is expected that supply will increase slightly and demand may be better. The supply of ferronickel at the raw material side is expected to increase, and the supply of ferrochrome will remain loose, and the support for cost later may be weakened.


There will be a certain increase in the supply of stainless steel in September. Before the end of the year, there will be less capacity for new 300-series steelmaking in the country; the United States intends to cancel the import tariff on stainless steel in Indonesia, and China’s anti-dumping investigation on imported stainless steel will ease the supply pressure on the mid-line. The current demand is gradually showing signs of recovery. With the recent stabilization of nickel prices, the stainless steel market has improved, but it has not yet shown obvious peak season demand. It needs to be tracked continuously. The price of 304 stainless steel may not be pessimistic. The current focus is on the peak season. Whether demand can be fulfilled, and the impact of Sino-US trade war on nickel prices.


Strategy and risk point


It is recommended to be cautious. Although the demand for stainless steel has improved, the risk of Sino-US trade war still exists, and there is still uncertainty in demand.

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